Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Revenge of the Bureau of Statistical Overinformation

To paraphrase the song by LMFAO (feat. Lil Jon):


Come to think of it, a song parody where they sing about statistics instead of getting drunk should exist. Maybe we'll put that on our things to do after we've finished this blog. But for now, we have a much nerdier task at hand. How nerdy?

Screenshots of extensive spreadsheets nerdy.
Click to embiggen.
We needed an easy-to-read guide of all of our past fights. Need to know the exact percentage of the votes Harry S Truman earned in his 2nd Round battle against Calvin Coolidge? Want to know how many votes John Quincy Adams got against Franklin Pierce? Curious about who got the highest percentage in the Round of 16?

Our question to you would be, "Why would you want to know any of that?" But we're not here to judge. We're here to make your life simpler.

Oh, but what if you're curious about the overall performance of an individual fighter? Sure, James Monroe was out in the 2nd Round, which means that he won one and lost one, but did he end up with more votes for him or against him?

We've got you covered:
Click to see just how much a statistical outlier like Jed Bartlet screwed up the numbers.
Of course, these numbers are as of last Friday and do not include this week's fight, but we thought we'd share anyway.

Onto the other things that we've looked at in the past.

Younger vs. Older
One would think that the younger combatant would be in better shape, and would therefore win more times than not. Well, congratulations on being wrong. The older fighter had won 58.6% of the time.
The older Grover Cleveland defeated his younger self, so there you go.
There were a few fights that we weren't able to count. For example, fights with Kang, the alien of indeterminable age, weren't counted.

Based on this fact alone, who would be more likely to win the championship: Andrew Jackson was inaugurated at 62 and left the White House at 70, while Barack Obama will be turning 50 this summer.

The Very Model of a Modern Commander-in-Chief
The president that served later won 59.6% of the time.

This should come as no surprise to anyone watching Obama marching his way to the Finals. Of course, there are presidents who have served even later than him. Nixon's Head and Dwayne E.M.D.H. Camacho served in the 31st and 26th century, respectively, yet they didn't last very long.

At the same time, we have George Washington. He was the earliest president in the bracket and he managed to get all the way up to the Semifinals.
He's also the only one to have lost twice, so there's that.
Based on this fact alone, who would be more likely to win the championship: Do we really need to answer this? Okay, fine. Obama.

Taller vs. Shorter
Tall guys have the reach, which helps explain how they won 61.9% of the time. That being said, the two tallest real presidents (Abraham Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt, who stood at 6'4") both lost to people at least six inches shorter.

Based on this fact alone, who would be more likely to win the championship: Tie. They're actually both 6'1".

Tony vs. Doug
There are two ways at looking at this one, but in both ways, Tony won.

Before we started the 1st Round, we decided who would take who. That person would argue for that combatant for later rounds as well, unless both fighters had been argued for by the same guy. Doug put less thought into the "long game" and chose people he'd think would be more fun to argue for. As a result, he chose the Mike Bradys, Chester A. Arthurs and the Julia Manfields.

Tony was smarter in snatching up three of the four No. 1 seeds. As a result, Doug's combatants got knocked out pretty early on. Only one of his originals made it to the Quarterfinals, and that was Thomas J. Whitmore. After than, he was dependent on Tony's scraps.

That being said, Tony "gave" Doug Obama three times, and that hasn't really been working out for Tony.

But even then, Tony obliterated Doug in this one.

Who Had Better Picks?
As mentioned recently, Tony and Doug each filled out their own brackets of how they thought things were going to turn out. Going into the Semifinals, Tony had a 70-67 lead. However, Tony went 0 for 2 in the semis, while Doug correctly put Jackson in the Finals, meaning regardless of what happens this week, Doug eked out a win with this one.

Fictional vs. Real
Obviously, there are no fictional presidents remaining. It's worth noting that in total, fictional presidents have won 18 fights. We should also mention that Obama has had to clean more fictional presidents off the bottom of his shoes than anyone else. He defeated Thomas "Tug" Benson from the Hot Shots franchise, David Palmer from 24 and Jed Bartlet from The West Wing.

Political Party
In the past, we've made pie charts showing the political affiliation of the remaining fighters. We're not going going to do that here because it would just be a blue circle as both Jackson and Obama are Democrats.

Well, okay, they're only both Democrats in the strictest sense of the word. How pissed off do you think Jackson -- the first Democratic president -- would be knowing that not only there we had a black president, but that he was in the same party he helped originate? We wouldn't volunteer to be present for one of Jackson's fits of rage, but the "we have a black Democratic president?!" outburst would probably be one worth watching.

Well, at this point, we've looked at the numbers. The only thing left for you, the reader, to do is to vote, comment in this week's fight and wait for this week's results.

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